GSC, as someone who has closely followed this war from the early days even before Russia actually invaded, this is easily explainable by one word: MOBILIZATION.
When the war started, Russia swept across the south with a lot of success, taking places like Kherson with collaborator help. That made Russia’s army look better than what they fielded, because some places in the south offered little resistance.
Ukraine mobilized their countrymen, drafting them and training them all around Europe, while Russia only had a small invasion force of 200k.
Russia was never really “winning” on the northern front. They failed to take Chernihiv so they went around it. Okay, congratulations, they took Chernobyl. But they over extended heading south and could never secure their lines from attack. They had no hope of encircling Kyiv. It was so bad they decided to abandon the entire front. This was a victory for Ukraine not Russia, and this was in April.
Keep in mind, this entire time Russia’s main stated goal was protected Donbas Russians. They were trying to take that land and were not gaining much ground. they got hung up in Mariupol for a long time. That was ultimately a victory for them, but it was a costly one, both in terms of troops and in stalling the rest of their offensive.
So to say it was clear Russia was winning at the beginning is false.
Next we have the middle of the war. when Russia regrouped and leaned on their strength, heavy constant artillery. These were the darkest days for Ukraine no doubt. Russia combined their ripped up northern unit into the Donbas. They pushed more troops and mercenaries into the theater, reaching around 300k troops total in participation. meanwhile, the front in Ukraine was defended mostly by Territorial Defense Forces. They were severely undermanned and severely outgunned. Russia was firing10-20x the artillery than they could return.
But there was a reason Ukraine was so underpowered. It was because they were training their troops the entire time, for months, to go on an offensive. And this wasn’t easy. It wasn’t magic. They wanted to start the big push in June, then July, then August. It kept getting delayed, because to train and equip units for offensive actions takes a lot of time, money, and coordination. And Ukraine could not have pulled this off without NATO. People like bikki were spreading propaganda that certain Western weapons were not hitting the battlefield, and that’s because they were being trained with the new units.
Meanwhile, Russia is slogging just to take Severodonetsk. Do they do the smart thing they should have done months ago and mobilize? No. They don’t believe Ukraine can turn things around. They are fine pushing a dirty artillery war, slow and steady,
Then HIMARS come into play. Again, despite bikki propaganda about how a few units can’t do anything and how Russia will easily destroy them, HIMARS completely changed the game. Although Ukraine was no able to push an offensive yet, HIMARS tore up Russia logistics, ammo depots, and command centers. They are still a HUGE problem that Russia hasn’t been able to counter, and they still haven’t managed to destroy a single one.
And then, Ukraine’s mobilization wave completes. What seems “all of a sudden” to casual observers like yourself had been a LONG TIME COMING for people knowledgeable about events. Ukraine now has offensive mechanized and infantry units.
And guess what? That heavy equipment bikki said wasn’t making it to the battlefield suddenly did. And guess what? Much of the Kharkiv oblast controlled by Russia turned out to be defended only by a patchwork of militants. These aren’t front lines you might think of in WWI. These are roads and cities with occasional BTRs and a few tired troops. They were pushed out with overwhelming force. Now, Ukraine it outmanning Russia 3 or 4 to 1.
Why do you think Putin finally called for a mobilization? Because he should have done it 8 months ago. Because this is why Ukraine is currently winning. They mobilized, and they did it without rushing untrained conscripts to the front lines, and they did it with NATO training and equipment.
Meanwhile Russian forces are exhausted. most analysts called this, saying their offensive would culminate after taking Luhansk, and that’s exactly what happened. Russia has only been feeding new troops to the battlefield in a patchwork fashion, conscripting militants, offering large signing bonuses, recruiting from prisons, finding foreign mercenaries, etc. Past the initial deployment, they hadn’t fed more citizens into their own military machine. Unthinkable, I know, but Putin was busy selling to his people something you fell for, that this wasn’t a full war. So politics sunk his ambitions.
As far as nuke talk, the US has said multiple times that they have seen no movement that would suggest the Kremlin is planning to use them. Everything else is alarmism or empty Russian threats.
I should add here AND NO RESPONSE FROM RUSSIA.