The “Counteroffensive” started slow in July, with some months of softening and shaping fires. It’s safe to say things are now in full swing.
The Battle of Kherson is a heavily defended area that will be slow going, focusing on attrition of Russian forces where they are strongest yet also most vulnerable.
Today let’s talk about the Battle of Kharkiv. Far from an opportunistic recon group taking advantage of thin Russian lines, this is a well coordinated co-offensive with tactical reserves and artillery support. It is a fast push led by mechanized brigades that made a huge breakthrough of the front line and are now attacking Russians in the rear.
A few days ago, this entire map was red. Two days ago, Balakliya (on the middle left) was a highminded goal. Now it is operationally encircled.
It was unheard of for Ukraine to attack Kupyansk (on the top right) so quickly. Now the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU, which bikki says doesn’t exist) have video evidence of them at the outskirts. They are shelling the town.
Kupyansk is a VITAL transport hub for Russia’s entire northern front. They rely heavily on trains for logistics, and the rail lines from Russia to Izyum go through Kupyansk. Ukraine already has fire control on the main logistic hub of the northern front!!! The question is can they capture it?
As you can see, the offensive is putting pressure on Izyum (on the middle bottom) from all sides. This is territory that took Russia months to capture. With the mechanized brigades now swooping south, Izyum is approaching danger of being cut off and encircled. If Russia cannot get enough reserves in place very soon, they may opt for another “goodwill-gesture withdrawal” like on Snake Island.
Things are moving lightning-fast on this front. There are exciting updates every day. I’ll try to keep up.
Not shown yet the the pivot south to Izyum which is an ongoing intensive battle.
Kupyansk itself is split in two by a river. Most accounts credit the Russians with blowing the main bridge, essentially forsaking the west half of the town while they either retreat or dig in.
And just like that, Russia has lost the Battle of Kharkiv.
I saw news of Kupyansk being taken last night but wanted to wait for better confirmation. With logistics lines under Ukrainian control, Russia forces in Izyum would be stranded. Rather than fight to keep the city, Russia retreated from Izyum.
This is a city that took them 2 months to fight for. More than that, Izyum was Russia’s base for the entire northern front.
As with the defeat at Kyiv, Russia announced that they are abandoning the Kharkiv oblast so they can focus on the Donbas.
This is really, REALLY embarrassing, and comes at a time when their best troops are still under intense pressure in Kherson. We also must wonder how quickly the AFU can reorganize their units that were holding the line south of Izyum. They may be able to continue advancing while the TDFs (Territorial Defense Forces) dig in on their gains.
See those red-black dotted lines called the “ground lines of communication”? Those are rail lines. You can see they come in from Russia at 3 points - these are supply routes. Note how they all go through Kupiansk. This is why, as soon as Ukraine marched on that city, Russia needed to abandon Izyum. There are no other rail lines from Russia to Izyum.
Ukraine made amazing gains but was unfortunately unable to break through at Lyman and encircle Izyum. Russia forces successfully achieved a hasty withdrawal. Without a shred of sarcasm, one of the best maneuvers Russians have proven to effectively coordinate in this war is retreat.
Ukraine has capitalized on their success by Pushing Russia north to their border, clearing Kharkiv out of artillery range.
You can also see them pushing into Lysychansk. As of yesterday, Russia no longer occupies 100% of the Luhansk oblast. You know, that’s kind of one of Russia’s stated goals, as well as one of their biggest victories so far in this war.
One other interesting note is that Oryx counts confirmed losses by both sides. As these are visually confirmed, the numbers will be conservative but at least accurate. Over the last week on this front, Ukraine has captured more equipment than they have lost. With Russia’s hasty retreat, a lot of heavy gear is being left behind.
Just in case you wonder how the talking heads on Russian State TV feel about this, their debates are very interesting.
On the northern front, Ukraine is pushing east of the Oskil River. It looks like they are attempting to interdict the last supply line that runs from Belgorod into the Donbas.
Russians are dug in at Svatove, and Ukraine is positioning towards Kermenna to the south.
I expect this battle to last longer as Russia has adjusted to the shock of being attacked.
Meanwhile Russia is just passing legislation to introduce severe punishments for soldiers who fail to follow orders, who desert, and who surrender. It seems even Russia is aware of the writing on the wall.
It’s worth repeating that Russia is no longer 100% in control of the Luhansk oblast. How capably Russia fights to maintain this line should signal how the rest of the year goes.
After defeats in the Kharkiv oblast and a worrying situation in Kherson, Russia has announced mobilization.
They’re calling on reservists and/or people with military experience to fight in Ukraine. They have also indefinitely suspended the expiration of military contracts while under the mobilization order.
While this is not a full draft of non-servicemen, flights out of Moscow have skyrocketed in price and are suddenly booked days out as men attempt to flee the country. A larger public response remains to be seen.
That said, there is no doubt this order can potentially drum up hundreds of thousands of soldiers ti fight this war. Of course, bikki doesn’t understand who these new soldiers would be fighting, and GSC pretends moblizing for a “special military operation” is normal.
These reservists are not highly trained and are questionably supplied. There are also huge questions concerning Moscow’s remaining training infrastructure after months of scavenging trainers to fight on the front lines. Don’t expect immediate results. This order, which really should have been done 7 months ago, will take 2-4 months to show results on the battlefield.
I would not be surprised if Ukraine announces a wider mobilization in response.
By October 1, Ukraine will be twenty percent smaller as Russia will annex the oblasts of Luthansk, Donetsk, Zaporozhye, and Kherson into the Russian Federation. Kharkov, Nikolaiev, and Odesa will soon follow suit. The Ukrainian Kievan government will cease to make it through winter.
The true reason this war must end is that Europe is on the brink of an economic depression, not a recession, and there is only one way to obtain relief: Access to Russian energy. Hence, sanctions will be withdrawn as will support to the Kievan Nazi regime. Ironically, it is Russia who can afford to make war; the Europeans cannot. Putin doesn’t lose wars. When the oblasts become part of Russia, then Ukrainian militancy will be an attack on Russia, and the Red Army will be called up. Under Putin’s present plan less one percent of the Red Army will be mobilized. Essentially, the war is being fought by Donbas militias. When the Red Army is committed, it’s all over for the Nazis. According to Putin, Russia will not attack major cities since destroying them will be destroying parts of Russia.
I recently talked with a Russian friend whose family still lives in Kharkov, and he reported that vast numbers of Ukrainians have abandoned the city. The vernacular on the streets of Ukraine’s second largest city is Russian, not Ukrainian. I noticed the same thing when I visited Kharkov forty years ago. Kharkov Oblast too will become part of Russia.
The only thing that the West is winning in Ukraine is in creating propaganda.
But, wait…none of your other predictions came true. Rather than addressing any of them, you’re making another? Are you an evangelical prosperity gospel preacher on Daystar TV, by chance?
