The funny thing about leverage, it only works if you’re in a strong position.
Russia’s position was strong in March. In April in Istanbul, the cracks were already widening. By May they had an entire failed front and it was clear they could not make good on their threat of toppling Ukraine’s government.
@thre305ive …Does this change your opinion on the current state of affairs with Ukraine ongoings? My apologies if you have address this or changed your stance on this already….Admittedly I have only read a few tweets with a few quotes on this…Not meant as a flame.
I read both those articles when they came out. I don’t think there’s any new information in them?
@skeeter If you’re asking about my view on the war, it’s pretty obvious both sides are in a place where they can’t go on successful offensives. Russia cannot breach hardened Ukrainian positions, and Ukraine cannot pull off combined arms operations to get past extensive Russian minefields.
The war is not TECHNICALLY at a stalemate yet, but it is more or less there now.
What happens next depends on support, supply, and manufacturing over the next couple years. Neither country is in a great position - Russia needed to buy 3 million artillery shells from North Korea for chrissakes! - but despite staggering losses the Russia war machine can continue fighting in the medium term.
Russia would like to open talks for ending the war, and they’ve signaled that several times recently, but their terms of annexation are impossible for Ukraine to accept in the near term.
When the war first started, after Russia retreated from the north and gave up their failed goal of toppling the Ukrainian government, I wondered if we would end up with an East/West Germany situation along the Dnieper River. Or it could end up being more more like North/South Korea with a DMZ in between. To Ukraine’s credit, they didn’t fall all the way back to the river and still have some offensive potential left. But it’s too soon to tell.
Russia’s economy is not doing well, but nobody should have illusions of their government collapsing or anything like that. Sanctions hurt, but countries like Iran and north Korea can survive without them. Especially Russia who is more self sufficient.
80, it’s really that simple. People like him think being sure of something is the same as being right. It works in his head at least, but he’s clueless about how everyone looks at him.