As a longtime proponent of UBI, this is an interesting presentation to discuss.
What are your thoughts on other countries that have instituted similar programs?
What are your thoughts on our domestic governments that have already instituted similar programs? Is it working, too soon, not working?
I worry this will incentivize a lot of people to not work…is this supposed to be like unemployment?
I similarly share your concern, but tend to think about the future of work (automation) and then I quickly get over it.
Link to a study in there WRT to Alaska to further broaden understanding/knowledge.
I had no idea Milton Friedman was a proponent (at least according to the article). Be interesting to read up on that.
Others I know are concerned about automation, but we’re not there yet.
People need to reinvent themselves.
Instead of universal healthcare or basic income, how about universal work program? Like in the show House of Cards. Link work to income and healthcare. Our streets and cities are filthy. Make people do something. (Of course, providing for those that physically/mentally can’t work).
Is it easy to reinvent oneself? I’ve done it and it wasnt as easy as it is typing it out. I’m retired IT and while I dabble in some technogical advances (such as hacking my phone as hobby), I really can’t stand coding, web Dev, or sys admining. After a decade in IT, I wanted OUT.
I’m sure things will pop up outside of IT and the Service Industry, but that’s where I see the bulk of future work. I want part of neither lol.
I see where you’re going with this. It makes sense - although from a healthcare perspective employers are continuing to go away from the “traditional” healthcare plans (co-insurance/co-pays) and passing more of the expense onto employees via HSA’s and high deductible accounts.
It is true - people need to reinvent themselves from time to time. Certainly when we return to “normal” it’s not going to look exactly like it did pre-COVID.
I’ve been reading a book on Modern Monetary Theory. UBI hasn’t been mentioned yet but the book does dive into government work programs (think CCC of the 1930s). The general idea, the government would hire unemployed during recessions/depressions. People that go on unemployment tend to take longer to get hired again. Thus, the government would set the minimum wage and keep people from failing. I like it so long as unemployment benefits disappear. At least with government work, people can help the community out. We have to be careful with government subsidizing itself (USPS, Amtrak). Personally, I’d rather the government focus on infrastructure than Amtrak and USPS.
As for robots and AI taking over jobs, this has been happening at an ever faster rate. The tipping point will be when you can get a driverless taxi. This is actually one of the reasons Tesla’s stock is bubble like. IF they pull it off, people can buy a Tesla that will pay for itself by being a ride share car. This would remove 300-500k jobs from the US economy and likely increase the number of cars of the road. Who is impacted: public transportation, taxis, ride share drivers, …
I can’t believe they haven’t started with crew less ships. Instead of having 1 ship that is MASSIVE with 30-40 crew, build 3-4 smaller ships with no crews, have a port captain board the ship as it nears port otherwise lock the vessel and use sat based systems to control it. I’d be willing to bet the loss of ships would be less costly than the loss of life (pirates, storms…) AND the time from build to buy is likely weeks to months less.
Airplanes are already semi-automated with the first FAA approved self landing plane approved. Yes, the captain has a medical and someone can click a button to have the plane land at the nearest airport.
Those three examples are also why Space is the single most important place to control! SpaceX has launched 1100 Starlink sats. Those sats will help deliver internet to ships, planes, cars in the very near future at a cost that is much less than the current providers. At worst, it is the redundancy needed for ships and planes.
This is why I said a few months back, the US economy is moving towards a service based economy vs. manufacturing. Lawyers, Doctors, Nurses, Tradesmen, Fitness, Hospitality, IT,… That isn’t to say we won’t make good things: it is to say that those manufacturing jobs will truly be IT jobs to manage robots, AI… China’s days are numbered as AI and robotics catch up with their child and cheap labor. At some point, it will be cheaper and faster to make things with robots here than import from Asia. This will help deduce our cost of living and could potentially increase our exports.
I’m going to assume that Djrion has never made any serious money in his life and that is why he is cool with a UBI.
I can barely live on multiple six figures here in Jersey. You think anyone can live on this UBI? It’s peanuts. Can’t raise a dog on this living.
And it will only incentivize less production out of people.
You must be a god awful professor. I feel bad for those students.
I literally work in this space right now.
It’s the biggest myth out there.
AI and automation will never replace workers completely. They will do 2 things…
Create OTHER KINDS of work that people will specialize in (think about the transformation from a farm economy to a industrial economy and the jobs it created).
Become a force multiplier. An organization will assign AI TO WORKFORCES to help them maximize production. It will not replace them.
The next big battle that will replace the race wars will be the labor vs robots war. And politicians will create laws to ensure people will always work and earn a wage. Otherwise they’ll be voted out.
This would be a big mistake IMO. We are better off with robots and service jobs. If we don’t accept robots, other countries will accept them and take the tech lead.
You THINK this is the case but people in China and India love their families as much as we do. They see work as a source of dignity and integrity very much like us.
You are making an assumption that those populations won’t demand similar.
I see revolts over a topic like this. People will not allow their PURPOSE in life to be transferred to a lifeless machine so that their families starve.
Hence the UBI. See how that works?
You’re not supposed to fully live on UBI. In fact,from what I’ve read, UBI works better as a supplement so the receiver of the benefit can then look for a better, more fulfilling job.
This is a weird statement when you immediately follow it up by mentioning the farm economy. Think about how many people used to tend the fields, and how many got replaced by giant farm vehicles driven by one person. Sure, you need a driver, and you need designers and builders of the vehicle, but you end up using fewer people to do the job.
That’s the entire point of tools - to make work easier. Automation absolutely dries up those lower skilled jobs: bank teller, drive-thru window order taker, garbage men, etc.
How about the checkout clerk to self-checkout?
You mean like the revolts when Ford, Chevy, Jeep… automated jobs away in their factories? Or when checkout clerks were replaced by self-checkout lines? Or when ATMs were installed everywhere? OR when the phone operator disappeared? OR when ezpass replaced tollbooth operators? …
All of that automation increases the GDP of the country as it focuses the human capital on jobs that can’t get automated at this time while other countries have to keep humans employed. Sure, the requirements for a job may increase over time but humans that are not willing to learn will always fall behind.
Sure, 1 person manning 5 checkout machines. That’s an 80% reduction in the non-skilled workforce.
Lmfao again you know nothing about me, so please stop acting like you know what I do for a living. Dead wrong as usually.
No one said they will take over every job, you idiot.
Nor have you taken the time to read a single thing in ITT.
Don’t spout your nonsense when you know nothing except BS ideaolgy that you get shat on dailybfor spreading lies and myths. Guess what? I D I O T
90s, actually it will be in the freight sector (truck drivers). If not mistaken (been awhile since I have checked), truck drivers make up one of the largest workforce bases in the US.
Here is a prettty good counter to my perspective:
Lots of research / info out there otherwise.
Agree on the US service based economy. My perception on service economy is generally negative, but you’ve built some positivity in the space. What do I mean by negative? We will all be serving each other coffee to survive… (BTW I roast my own coffee in case that dystopian future arrives).
Very cool thoughts on China and cheap labor. I never rationalized it that way. I’ll have to think on it.
Trucking is possible when they use box trucks. Otherwise, we are decades away IMO. It wouldn’t shock me to see regional freight moved to box trucks to leverage similar AI as cars.
AI allows us to ignore the size of the machines. Thus, make smaller ships, trucks, planes, trains, robots…while making more of them.
Find any job that is repetitive and it can likely get replaced with better technology.