I obviously thought it would be a bigger day for Republicans and was wrong there. I wasn’t confident in a red wave, or whatever terminology people want to use. It is a little weird to hear the Democrats and media gloating over what might still be a Republican win of House and maybe Senate. Some general thoughts:
Trafalgar was awful in their polling accuracy. They were really bad. A perfect example is that they had Murray as a slight lean and she’s going to win by a wide margin. Trafalgar was great in 2016 because they were able to reach the Trump voter. They bombed this time.
Exit polls showed that inflation was number 1 and abortion a close second. I knew abortion would motivate the left but I didn’t know it would be to this degree. The Republicans had terrible messaging on the topic and the Democrats definitely pounced on this. As a pro-life person I’m OK sacrificing some political wins for the Roe v Wade decision. Both sides have used the abortion issue as a motivating factor for decades and that won’t change going forward.
The Democrats smartly made this about Trump. Even though Trump hasn’t been president for two years, they kept Jan 6 and election denialism in people’s minds and Trump couldn’t help himself but spout off. He would have helped the party by laying low, but he can’t help himself.
To put things in a bit of perspective, the Republicans weren’t expected to take both the House and Senate a few months ago. There was recent momentum that got people excited about a potential rout. But the Republicans ran some bad Senate candidates. And the map was always going to be tough based upon the number of seats they had to defend. They were really close in some Governor races that you’d never imagine a Republican winning, like NY. Not close enough, but not getting blown out in states that they normally have no chance. So there is something there.
That being said, the Republican Party has to do some soul searching because they should have been able to clean up in this election. They need to offer better ideas and not assume that a crappy economy will get them elected.
And the Democrats run circles around them in ground game and organization. Just kill them.
2024 will be interesting. I’d like to see a real primary and someone to challenge Trump.
I think the comfort for Dems is it wasn’t as bad as expected, of course. Not even as bad as historical averages for midterms. But, moreso, that Trump and Trumpy candidates proved to be a drag on the party as a whole.
I think the Dems are merely fighting for normalcy, adherence to basic reality as opposed to the perceived fascism and overt corruption of Trump and his faketriots. I mean, we’re used to “corporations are people”, trickle down economics being implemented when we have 40 years of empirical evidence that it doesn’t work, the Christian baker doesn’t want to make a cake for those two dudes, and the like.
It’s the JFK is still alive, Trump won the election, Russia our friend and Britain is our enemy, let’s leave the UN and NATO, Kim Jong Un is my love buddy, and all that crazy shit that many of us are so pleased appear to be an anchor to the party
Um…the company that began in 2016? The one who predicted Trump would win in 2020 and also 5 battleground states Trump lost to Biden? THAT is the most accurate in the business, huh? Such a long and splendid history of picking winner, eh?
Yeah, I would say Indiana adjusting his expectations based on reality was very reasonable of him. I don’t think anyone could have predicted the Republican errors, or how the Russian invasion played out, etc. I just mean he had reasonable expectations about the election a week ago, and his analysis is fair and balanced.
I would slightly bristle at the idea that Dems made this about Trump. True, they focused on that. True, it was a strategy. BUT it would be unfair to say Trump didn’t do that himself too. He did his thing by slamming moderate Pubs and championing those spouting his talking points. He very much made him a part of this election too.
Also interesting to note that some Dems from the Jan. 6 committee have not faired well politically since… Perhaps signifying that it is time for them to drop this as well.
Trump was a contributing factor for sure. I might not have been clear on that but it’s definitely true.
The question that I have going forward is how the Republican Party treats Trump, because he’s clearly too polarizing at this point to pull off another election IMO. But he’s also unlikely to be beaten in a primary if he runs again.
Excellent analysis Indiana. I find myself also disappointed in the results, and surprised at Trafalgar’s prediction inaccuracy which raises my suspicion about election impropriety. Mail-in ballots and early voting need to be eliminated. Otherwise, I think fair elections cannot nor will not happen in America.
Nothing hurts Republicans worse than their stance on abortion. Clearly the majority of Americans including myself believe a woman should be the sole arbiter of her own body. Otherwise, women have lessor rights than men. Abortion rights are here to stay in America, and they can only grow stronger as greater numbers of people come to the realization that religion, the driving force in the matter of abortion, is nothing but the mythical creation of mankind. Faith without reason simply is not acceptable to a society growing more scientifically sophisticated all the time.
The predicted Red Wave only occurred in Florida due of course to stirring success of its talented governor. Donald Trump’s influence has been muted significantly, and there will be a fight among Republicans to find a new standard bearer for 2024. I cannot stand Nikki Haley, but she’s in the mix, probably as a VP candidate. DeSantis is from this day forth the frontrunner. Others who might challenge are Tim Scott, Chris Sununu, and Glenn Younkin.
That the Red Wave didn’t happen in a mid-term election has caused me to reappraise my thinking. I thought the Democrats’ endless yammering about “our democracy” and “fascism” was incredibly stupid, born of desperation, and would be ignored by voters. I was partly right: those themes were stupid, and they were born of desperation. But it turned out that they were not ineffective. Many idiots, which I described in an earlier recent post declared incessantly that, “I’m voting against fascism.”
Maybe they were less of idiots than I thought. “Our democracy” and “fascism” were code for Donald Trump. At this point, Trump is considered by many as being a giant anvil around the neck of the Republican Party. In many areas, he is absolute poison. To be associated with Trump all of a sudden is no longer associated with winning but unfortunately the reverse.
My advice to the right would be not to strive to remove Biden from the presidency. Taking Biden out would solve a huge problems for Democrats. I favor letting Biden continue to fail and allow him to reach a crescendo of failure in another two years. Keep Biden in office to foment nomination discord. The Republicans best issue is the border and immigration. Their worst is abortion. No Republican can win strongly supporting abortion period. Americans have a choice support abortion or accept communism.
That being said, the Republican Party has to do some soul searching because they should have been able to clean up in this election. They need to offer better ideas and not assume that a crappy economy will get them elected.
They are a mess…And they “assume” a lot and take a lot for granted.
And the Democrats run circles around them in ground game and organization. Just kill them.
You are missing the point entirely. He can’t see why Dems are celebrating a potential loss in both house and Senate. Him adjusting his expectations is fine, but it is the reason why we are celebrating yesterday and or today.
*Dems can still win both
*Pennsylvania thinks Dems have flipped the state house!!!
*Michigan flips state house and State Senate (first time in 40 years)
*Positive Roe votes in Dem states
*Roe votes not banning in KY and Montana
The list is growing too. This is the most historical midterm and is turning into a route at this point.
