I changed my mind

Previously, I wrote that i’d give the edge to Miami against FSU. After studying statistics, I am reversing my position and predicting Miami will be defeated by the Seminoles. FSU has only five players starting from last year’s squad. All the rest, come in through NIL transfer.

While I think we are stronger in the trenches, I think we’ll suffer the fate of Alabama, and Malzahn will continually fool our defense through misdirection, tempo, pop passes, and numerous chunk plays. Contrary to what idiots in Alabama believe, DeBoer is a good coach, and Alabama may not lose another game this year. Man for man, they match any team in the country. Yet, FSU manhandled them.The young Tide QB looks better each game, and their rushing game should improve now that Jam is back.

Hetherman is a superb defensive coach, but he’s never played against a Malzahn offense. As my old friend and foremost high school football coach in Florida history, Carl Madison used to say, it’s much easier to fool them than to block them. I am afraid we’re going to see a lot of players chasing after other players not carrying the football. Using tempo, plays happen too quickly for defenses to get set up, and they revert to just basic defense.

After doing what I call due diligence, I believe FSU will prevail convincingly.. I hope I am mistaken. I’d be happy to eat crow. Please convince me I am mistaken.

Watch this video: What are the key principles of the Malzahn offense? - Yahoo Video Search Results

Alabama is going to lose more games. As for FSU, they are one dimensional on offense. I think Miami will be able to shut their run game down and once that happens, TC is going to be forced to throw. Miami offensive and defensive lines are much better. FSU OL while better has not been tested up front. Miami offensive line is a major advantage over FSU defensive line. FSU does not get pressure on opposing quarterbacks. Gus has always been great against bad teams - we will see but I think this match up favors Miami and big. I see a close game for maybe a half but like the Florida game, I just think Miami has too much and will pull away.

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Comparative Hurricanes versus Seminoles Stats

l. Rushing offense: FSU ranked 2nd, Miami 57th

  1. Passing offense: Miami ranked 35th, FSU ranked 39th

  2. Yds per pass: FSU 13.7, Miami 8.6

  3. First downs: FSU ranked 3rd, Miami ranked 23rd

  4. 3rd down Conv: FSU ranked 2nd, Miami 24th

  5. Total offense: FSU ranked 1st, Miami 34th

  6. Total defense: Miami 15th, FSU 21st

  7. Rushing defense: Miami 13th, FSU 15th

  8. Pass defense: Miami 26th, FSU 28th

  9. Sacks allowed: FSU 8th, Miami 46th

  10. Tackles for loss: Miami 31st. FSU 61st

  11. Turnovers: Miami 27th, FSU 61st

  12. Opponents long pass success: FSU 15th, Miami 35th

  13. Opponents long rush success: FSU 7th, Miami 21st

  14. Penalties: FSU 35th, Miami 62nd

As long as Dawson doesn’t try to force Beck to win the game, I think we can win. How he called the game against UF was masterful. The refs owe us a TD.

Um these are sobering stats.

I was already mega worried about this game. This post didn’t help!

What drives me crazy about Malzahn teams is how he uses double team blocking, ergo, how his teams get away with holding. Usually the holder is a tight end from the other side who arrives unexpectedly to box in a tackle or defensive end. He’ll do the same thing with his offensive guards. The holding is of such short duration that the refs allow it. Malzahn abuses it.

I put little to no stock in fsu stats. They played two teams whose fsu scout team would beat. Miami has played ND who will probably win out and Florida who has a very good defense.

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FSU is going to get hyped up big time if they beat UVA. Keep in mind that spread is only 6.5. The market knows UVA can play.

I think Miami is the more complete team and I think Castellanos is overrated. But, I could easily see FSU winning that game at home. It’s a toss up.

Virginia! All of sudden, Virginia is no pushover. Very good Qb. Superb offensive strategy has FSU on its heels midway through the 2nd quarter.

Virginia defense coming up with big plays. Safety blitz bothering Castellanos.

Virginia is well-coached team.

Two interceptions later by FSU, and the Noles capture the lead. Malzan’s ground game awakened, and FSU’s 6’6" WR Richardson too much handle for Virginia.

UVA would like a word.

Virginia is no cupcake. Va QB injures hand then conducts a 12 play drive that included 11 rushing plays. FSU especially vulnerable on wide plays right. Virginia scores to take a lead on a QB naked reverse, walked into the end zone untouched. FSU defense fooled completely. This is definitely not the Virginia team we’ve been accustomed to seeing. All of a sudden, the ACC has become competitive.

Stopping FSU on first down really affects their offense.

This FSU D won’t scare anybody. UVa is truckin’ them.

UF D > FSU D

Gus getting too cute there…

The concerns I had about this game have evaporated.

Looks like I am wrong. What a great game. Kudos to Virginia. They’re a well-coached team, and they played their hearts out. Miami’s defense is better than Virginia’s and put greater pressure on QB. QB was very vulnerable to safety blitzes. Looks like Elite80 handicapped well our chances against FSU.

Too bad. I was hoping for a top 10 match-up against an undefeated FSU and then kick the shit out of them… at home.

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Ever get the feeling life is passing you by …

You have to click on the x.com

I hate college OT. it is like school yard recess football and makes a joke out of a hard fought game.

FSU will probably still be Top 20, like 18-ish?

UVA has a pretty decent team. Not a walk over for Miami at all.

Miami could still lose to FSU if they don’t bother to show up as they so often have done in the past.

Down goes Frazier!