It’s been days now so we can reliably state this sequence of events:
1) Russia never managed to encircle Kyiv.
They were never able to cut supply lines to the capital. GSC and others may posit that taking Kyiv was never the goal. Possible, but it’s not plausible that Russia planned on allowing supplies to flow into the city unfettered. Besides the tactical blunder of dead paratroopers showing their hand, it’s idiocy to allow supplies into the city.
2) Ukraine started taking territory back.
Again, this is undisputed. Areas around Kyiv that were under Russian control came under Ukrainian attack and Russian forces were pushed back. Ukraine retook cities.
3) Russia announced the first stage of the invasion was complete and they would focus on Donbas.
It is key to note that it was a full 2 days after reports of the Ukrainian offensives before Russia announced their withdrawal. I think this is a face-saving measure instead of publicly admitting defeat on the northern front (where they still haven’t captured Chernihiv).
4) Northern front troops and armor are actually withdrawing.
We still need to be cautiously optimistic here, but there has been confirmed evidence of a tactical retreat of Russian troops. Some areas show heavy Russian losses and abandoned armor, signifying a retreat under fire.
Now, this war is far from over. Russia can stay in the south and east for another month if they like. Getting out of Belarus/Kyiv frees up a lot of resources, especially as Russia has seen notable sabotage along that front (some from Belarusians). Unifying their front along the east border simplifies their already complex logistical issues.
Russia can announce a win, a successful “demilitarization” of Ukraine, and then focus on the separatist regions. Of course, the West (as well as Russia) knows that Ukraine’s military power is only heightening after this war. They’re receiving new drones and air defenses that they never had before.
As far as conspiracy nonsense about bioweapon facilities, Russia never penetrated many encircled cities, including Kyiv. Russia never occupied 80% of the country, including nowhere in the west. GSC’s “bioweapon” map showed dots all over the country. If this was an objective, it was a failed one.
Hopefully Russia fully pulls out of Northern Ukraine and the war goes back to the east. They are still blockading the Black Sea, of course, so nothing can get to Odesa. But the land corridors through Europe remains untouched.
Unfortunately, developments along these lines will be slow. Moving an army has already proved difficult, and peace talks will have a lot of back and forth yet to come.
