3 War in Ukraine

Storm Shelter
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I’m pretty bummed about the West and NATO’s inaction in this thing.

I thought American intelligence leading up to the invasion was great, and the assistance to start the defense had amazing results.

Russia tried this the easy way, with minimal damage to infrastructure except for military bases and air defenses. They messed up and threw bodies at a problem instead of money (life is cheaper). And Russia paid the price. It was embarrassing, Ukraine was holding them off, and Russia was losing a lot of (mostly) older equipment.

Ukraine took out paratroopers, foiled Russian plans, held city strongholds, bombed convoys - they had a lot of wins. But there hadn’t been any of that for days.

Now it’s just the Russian machine moving slowly. They sent in most of their forces, conscripted other countries, and they’re rolling. They don’t care if the convoy only makes 10 miles a day of ground - they’re slow and steady.

Russia wants the entire coast. they want a land bridge from Russia to Crimea, and they’re slowly getting it. Mariupol doesn’t have long. Kyiv is likewise being surrounded.

And Russia, while their aim is to take over working infrastructure and govern the populace, would much rather burn everything down than withdraw with a loss. Their shelling will get worse, they will throw more numbers at this, and they will win.

And what did the West do except blow up a bunch of their armor? Russia’s going to continue along the coast into Transnistria and Moldova next. This is Europe trying to sit out a world war again, and all they’re doing is emboldening the enemy and letting them get closer as they grow.

I don’t know. The sanctions aren’t easy to shrug off. It’s easy to say they’re not doing much but they may in the long run. They won’t be enough to save Ukraine though.

For the record, I don’t buy the argument that this has nothing to do with America, or that we shouldn’t help because we don’t help all over Africa and the Middle East. But Ukraine is different. When a country is interested in joining NATO and the EU, that is absolutely out business. It seems like such a waste not to do anything.

If I were NATO, I would enter Ukraine with the announcement that we were not moving east of the Dnieper. Russia would be pissed, but it would be a line that wouldn’t be crossed in order to prevent nuclear war. The world might even end up with a West Ukraine / East Ukraine wall situation, which is better than their government being completely wiped out.

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I’m not sure we can believe any play by play we see on news regarding any of this

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No doubt, there is a lot of propaganda and speculation.

No one quite knows why Russia bungled the start of the invasion the way they did. My take is they did it to save money/supplies, and because they hoped they would succeed quickly and win non-bombed assets.

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Former US national security adviser John Bolton has hit out at the West’s response to the Russian invasion, saying “every day the war goes on in Ukraine is another day of failure”.

“I think he can be stopped if we make enough efforts and stop patting ourselves on the back for how virtuous we’re being.”

My sentiments exactly.

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I think this analysis is rather credible with exception of Russia attempting to seize either Odessa Oblast or Moldova. Nothing good can happen if the conflict is protracted over a longer period of time. Ukraine cannot win against the Russian army and cannot win support of other nations to join in the conflict.

I have read a bevy of articles of what particular thing compelled Putin to invade Ukraine. I believe the most satisfactory explanation was Biden assuring Ukraine of coming under the NATO umbrella. This was the redline that the CIA and other intelligence agencies warned Biden not to cross, but Biden has a lifetime record of failure in foreign policy strategy.

Unlike Crimea and Donetsk, there is precious little support for Russian governance in the Odessa Oblast or in Moldova. Though the City of Odessa is comprised predominately of Russians, the loyalty of the Oblast region is to Ukraine as exhibited by past polling data. The language of Moldova is Romanian, a non-Slavic language, and its people share cultural affinity with Romania. In fact, not too long ago, there was a plan to unite Moldova with Romania however the union never materialized. It is unlikely that Putin has designs on Moldova.

So what does Putin want? Putin wants a demilitarized Ukraine and Donetsk and Luhansk declared independent states in which annexation referendums will transpire. Occupying Ukraine is an expensive proposition, especially since Ukraine is Europe’s poorest nation. The only sanction that really could affect Russia is for Biden to sanction Russian oil, stop buying it, and begin increased domestic production in the United States. This would put considerable pressure on Russia to withdraw, but Russia WILL NEVER WITHDRAW with a Ukraine as part of NATO armed with weapons pointed at Moscow. If Biden weren’t so stupid, he could in short order put this conflict behind him.

There is a lot of news about anti-Putin sentiment in Russia, but the average Russian has angry disdain for NATO and view it as a wholly anti-Russian coalition that poses a nuclear threat to their country. In the main, Russian too want to be part of Europe not perceived as international pariah.

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This is why, after Ukraine, Russia will wait a few years before moving in.

It’s a conplicated question, and I think the main one is, is Ukraine worth getting into a possible nuclear exchange?

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Did they bungle? Or was Putin rope-a-doping? Perhaps he tested the waters and did not want to over-commit. Perhaps he wants to appear weaker than he is. Perhaps this was a ploy from a China-russian team where Russia feigns at Ukraine, everyone commits, and china invades the west coast with Russia focusing on the east coast. Whole bunch of info we are not privy to. I lean towards trusting our decision makers. Ukraine had opportunities to join the UN. Perhaps holdouts will quickly realize their mistake and pony up. While I hate to be terse and show a general lack of empathy, actions have consequences. And I hope that Putin faces his sooner, rather than later.

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I’ve thought about this possibility….doesn’t appear that China is ready for this yet….but who knows.

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I’m sure this is the most satisfactory answer as far as what you prefer, however, it is without merit. Ukraine has been trying to join NATO for 15 years. Russia began building up the forces at the Ukrainian border in April of 2021, right before NATO pushed again for the Ukraine to the Membership Action Plan as outlined by Lithuanian Foreign Minister. It’s clearly outlined and I don’t feel like copying it down for you. But, your horseshit about Biden being the cause is once again, a lie.

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Bikki doesn’t like facts that disagree with his opinion.

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Thank you. I think the ports are strategic strongholds. Russia needs Odesa to prevent Ukraine from getting supplies. Whether they will give it up after the war is an open question… but remember their fait accompli in Warsaw.

Past that, Lukashenko of Belarus already leaked a war map that show possible incursions into Moldova. It could be disinformation/trolling, but Russia has backed separatist forces in Transnistria with their “peacekeepers” for years already.

I believed this NATO decision spurred the war as well, but my view has evolved a bit. Here’s the history:

  • 2008 - NATO promises ukraine possibility of future membership, President Bush pushes for membership but NATO allies like Germany push back.
  • 2021 - Zelensky tweets about NATO membership and pisses Russia off. Afterward, Biden and NATO say nothing changed. Ukraine has in fact not been offered a Membership Action Plan (is this correct?)

At the June summit, Zelensky did not get an admission date. And U.S. President Joe Biden, who has been a strong champion in the past for Ukraine to join the Atlantic alliance, scotched talk of an impending admission.
Aside from Kyiv, No One in Rush for Ukraine to Join NATO

So your assertion about the red line is incorrect, but yes, NATO in Ukraine and Georgie is what Russia is concerned with.

He wants more than this. He wants to replace the government with one of his choice so he can control Ukraine in the future. Demilitarization is useless if you can’t control them and prevent them from building up again.

The supply lines are completely bungled.

The sending of paratroopers to Kyiv was a clear mistake too. I’m not a military expert, but you DO NOT send paratroopers without the expectation that 1) They exfil soon after, 2) They will be reinforced soon, or at least 3) They have air support. Paratroopers behind enemy lines will get slaughtered if abandoned, and that’s what happened.

Russia also failed to knock out Ukrainian’s air defenses and air force in their opening salvo. This is a clear fuckup since there’s no logical reason not to have finished what they started.

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So after my glum post about developments in the war, Ukraine actually had some good news last night.

It turns out the NW convoy heading to them is a mess. Vehicles running out of gas, vehicles sabotaged by their own soldiers who don’t want to fight. There are reports of soldiers shooting holes in gas tanks. I wonder if these 40 mile convoys are essentially road blockades now working in Ukraine’s favor? But I’m sure it’s not all that great.

Also, Ukraine seems to have found intelligence of the Russian war plan. Again, it could be disinformation, but it looks like the war was supposed to last 15 days. It would likely put them way behind their timetable. Things appear to be slowing down rather than speeding up, but who knows.

It also sounds like Ukraine reversed some of Russia’s gains near Kyiv and retook Makariv. Ukraine desperately needs to keep the western supply lines to Kyiv open so they can continue to resupply. I expect, if these stoppages continue, Belarus will need to follow through with their land invasion.

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Or internal sabatage (as you noted in your most recent post).

I could join you in the bungled thought experiment if we were talking about Russia’s seemingly archaic ground strategy marching troops to a border and then making them walk across a desert without water and then telling them to invade a city (I’m being purposefully silly here, but you get my point). Seems like when we go in it is ALWAYS to minimize US human life loss, letting the robots (drones) do the heavily lifting. Once you are destabilized by the flying terminators, we then invade while drinking tea and smoking cigs.

But thats what I don’t get. Russia certainly isnt this weak or stupid. Or are they?

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Well, as you’ve seen with the US, complacency and good times makes the military not as lock step as we expected back in the 70s and 80s. The troops the Russians have thrown out so far only have about 4 months of training, essentially conscripts. They aren’t the rank and file soldiers who’ve occupied the ranks for a long time. They’ve held most of that back from what I’ve read. Unfortunately for the Russians, they’re about to find out what an insurgency is like. Ukraine is doing the stay behind in Kherson, using it as a staging ground to test the resolve of the Russians. They’re not looking to retake the city…but to lull, attack and cause chaos, lull again, repeat. Russia planned on 15 days; they’ll get 10 years instead. These soldiers they have in there now haven’t even seen a manual on this type of fighting, much less be trained on it.

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It’s all matter of respect. This conflict would never have happened under Trump. Trump warned the Europeans about depending upon Russia to supply energy, while the idiot Biden restricted our own energy dependence, and then began enriching Russia by buying Russian oil, and still is buying Russian oil rather than sanctioning it. The red line is indeed Ukraine joining NATO, and Russia now flush with oil monies from the U.S., has the financing to prosecute a war. Dumb, dumb Biden and Obama. Dumb Westerners supplying more weapons so Ukrainians can commit suicide. The entire conflict is a result of a rigged presidential election where a demented moron now occupies the White House. The West will NEVER commit to fight in Ukraine. There is only one rational cure to the conflict–SETTLEMENT.

Actually Russia does not want to occupy Ukraine permanently, too costly. It does have a desire to cede the two eastern Oblasts of Ukraine into Russia, but such a move would not be a radical one inasmuch as the there is small difference in the people on either side of the border in Eastern Ukraine.

Russia does not have any sphere of influence in the Odessa Oblast save for the city of Odessa itself which has a majority Russian population. In fact, the rest of the Oblast along the Black Sea is very antipathetic to Russia. Russia does have minuscule influence in one tiny part of Moldova where the population is comprised of Slavic language speakers, Ukrainian, Russian, and Bulgarian, but by and large, Moldova is a Romanian nation, and of but small interest to Russia. Russian is however the lingua franca used by Moldovans to communicate with Moldovans of diverse cultural backgrounds, but Romanian is the national language of the nation.

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Lmfao

Bikki is a one trick pony.

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Not even worth reading. You’ve never been honest in any assessment, potentially, your entire life. I’m not sure you’re capable of it. You’re a traitor to this nation and our allies and instead favor our enemies because you see them as standing as the protagonists of your racist agenda. In the end, you’re just a racist old man, full of shit, who can’t stop lying about literally everything in his life.

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Yep, a racist old man who can’t stop lying

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He’s a total embarrassment and not worth responding to. Just another washed up boomer

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Just the absolute worst generation in the history of mankind. Locusts truly does describe them.