Par for the course
The real war is over in Ukraine. What remains is just mop action as the Ukrainian Army hides in cities behind human shields. Russia will stay in Donbas and along the Black Sea coast for a long time. As Ukraine weakens as it no doubt will, Russia will withdraw the corpus of the Red Army. I still am not sure whether Russia moves against Odessa. I believe they may surround the city and lay siege to it while clearing a land bridge to Transnistria. I doubt whether Russia sends troops into Odessa, treating it in the same fashion as it has Kiev and Kharkov, but Russia will control Black Sea ship traffic and there will be no exportation of Ukraine grain since Ukraine will use the proceeds to buy weapons. Look for millions starving in Africa and African refugees invading Europe to add further burden on European economies.
The reason this war cannot last is not a military strategic question, but an economic one. Germany’s economy is languishing to such an extent, that continued limitation of Russian oil and gas may well send it not into a recession but a wholesale depression. If Russia cuts off all exports to Europe, Europeans will freeze to death this winter. With prices of energy so steep, European manufactured products cannot compete in the world marketplace. Better deals will be found trading with both Russia and China. At the same time, food production in Europe is scaled down because of the lack of fertilizer. No access to Russian raw materials is killing Western Europe.
Were NATO to become a participant in a hot war, it would lose the war, even with the U.S. being participant. The war would be fought on Russian soil and carnage would be beyond the ability of Western nations to tolerate. Russia’s hypersonic missiles would take a terrible toll on Navy vessels. All air craft carriers could be taken out in the first two hours of a conflict. Russia has long history of sacrifice, and its army is formidable despite what is reported in Western media. At best, the West could obtain a Pyrrhic victory.
Liberal governance of course is the reason for the European stupidity. Trump gave Merkel excellent advice about building a deep port facility for importation of North American gas and oil. The woke Germans shuttered their nuclear plants in favor of wind and solar, both deployments being failures. Europe is now at the point of begging Putin to end the war. Resistance to ending it come from the U.S. which is better able to sustain itself economically than Europe, although the dollar is no longer the international reserve currency, and prolonging the war eventually will erode the American economy. Nothing could be more stupid either economically or humanistically than bolstering Ukraine’s ability to continue fighting. Joe Biden is not only sinking America but the entire Western World. This is liberal governance in action, Keynesian failed economics. Watch your 401s melt away and then have a new tax imposed on them. Rigged elections have consequences.
So funny to me how someone can write so verbosely and say absolutely nothing at all.
I don’t even read it anymore. There’s not a single honest bone in that dude’s body
This is a strategic oversight on your part.
Odesa is closer to Mariupol in purpose and geography. If Russia wants the coast and the port, if they want the land bridge to Transnistria, then they have NO CHOICE but to encircle and raze Odesa.
This is delusion. There is no war on Russian soil besides occasional cross-border artillery strikes / skirmishes, and even if NATO were to get involved, they would not invade Russian soil.
Sacrificing their people, you mean. And it’s a history they’re living up to.
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