The HTS sweep through Syria is routing Assad’s forces. The regime has been exposed.
Let’s face it. Assad almost lost to the rebels before. But Iran supplied weapons, Hezbollah supplied troops, and Russia supplied materiel, Special forces, and air support.
Only Iran has been cowed by the United States and Israel.
And Hezbollah has been decimated in the field, their entire command staff neutralized, and pretty much issued a full surrender.
Russia? We all know how depleted they are, in stocks, manpower, and treasure. And they don’t have a whole lot to spend propping up their old ally.
Now, in a Black Eye to the entire Axis of Resistance and the Russian Federation, they have all pretty much given up on Assad. Russia has even been evacuating their flotilla to make sure rebel drones don’t inflict naval losses.
I think Assad may be done. Much depends on whether Homs is taken, and also how strongly Turkey objects to continued HTS offensives.
Russia will probably need to totally abandon their ally and flip flop to supporting HTS in order to keep their Syrian military bases. I don’t see them being pushed out without more direct US involvement, which so far has been limited to airstrikes to support the SDF, another winner in these events.
All in all a nice turn of events for US foreign policy in Syria after Trump’s disastrous management there.