With less than 2% of the Kharkiv oblast still occupied by Russia, I thinks it’s time we pivot to Kherson.
However, the rainy season is upon Ukraine and with it a very likely Fall slowdown. So before the action hits, let’s look at a monthly chart of Ukrainian territory changes up to now.
February, March
At the end of February, Russia initially invaded. That spilled into March and together represents the overwhelming majority of their gains.
April
But their attack quickly stalled. Russia abandoned their northern front, ceding a gigantic chunk of territory back to Ukraine and essentially admitting their inability to topple the government.
May, June, July, August
Russia moved into artillery grinding mode, their “Phase 2” focus on the Donbas. This was the time Severodonetsk was taken and things looked bleak for the defenders. Ukraine meanwhile had mobilized and was training troops while territorial defenses dug in. You can see the entire Summer+ what paltry gains Russia made. Reports about their forces being exhausted were RIGHT.
September
Ukraine launches their long-awaited counteroffensive. They take modest territorial gains until they collapse the Kharkiv line with mechanized battalions. For the first time, they prove they can do more than defend. Russia panics and mobilizes (arguably their first good move in a while).
October
The last month was relatively slow. Many pro-Russians would like to believe Ukraine all but stalled out. HOWEVER, it is indisputable that, in one month, Ukraine gained more territory than Russia did in their huge Summer campaign. Russia’s territory continues to dwindle.
We know Kherson is in trouble, but we don’t know how long the Russians will stay there and fight. It would be a huge political loss and embarrassment to cede the city, but it’s almost inevitable. It’s looking like Russia wants to freeze the lines over Winter so they can accomplish a full round of mobilization like Ukraine did, as well as hope Europe loses its interest in the Slavs.
As Ukraine continues to test the line for weaknesses, so Russia reinforces it. The mobilized troops don’t have much training but warm bodies should not be underestimated. Same with Iranian weapon deals. We have yet to see the West with a strong response to these moves.
Fall will be slow, but the action should pick up in Winter. Frozen ground makes for fast moving, and the Ukrainians are well-equipped for the cold.
Meanwhile, Europe is enjoying one of its warmest Falls on record and is sitting at 95+% gas reserves…
Pretty embarrassing sequence of events for Russia.
1) Over the weekend, they pull out of the grain deal.
This was brokered by Turkey and the UN and ensure Ukrainian and Russian grain shipments can cross the Black Sea unmolested to prevent world hunger. Russia did their usual talk tough thing, unilaterally pulling out without getting Turkey’s consent, saying Ukraine could no longer ship grain.
2) Turkey and Ukraine say fuck you and ship grain anyway.
This grain deal is Erdogan’s baby and he won’t have Putin shitting on it. Over the last 2 days, Ukraine shipments leave the port escorted by Turkish vessels. Russia does NOTHING.
3) Russia backs down and returns to grain deal.
Rather than continue to look weak by saying there is no grain deal, but it happening under their nose anyway, Russia agrees to return to the grain deal so they at least appear to have a smidgen of buy-in.
This is an embarrassing 180 in policy. Russia attempted to appear strong and in control. Instead they look weak and at the mercy of Turkey and the UN.
And all for what? Stopping food shipments to Africa? Lol you can’t make this idiocy up.
The Russian-installed “deputy head” of Kherson was a traitor who released a video calling Ukrainians Nazis and saying they had full control of the city.
Hours later he was killed in a car crash.
Just hours after that, Russian Defense Minister Shoigu announced on television that Russia was withdrawing from Kherson and the right bank of the Dnieper.
The battle that wasn’t?
We’ll need to see how the actual retreat plays out to know more, but this might be the shortest war thread ever…
There’s some shit happening in Kherson now. Supposed full retreat, attack by Ukraine to hit the crossings. Won’t be able to say with more certainty until tomorrow at least. A lot of the juicy details are probably a psyop.
Quite possibly the worst loss of territory for Russia since the invasion began. Kherson was the biggest and most intact city they occupied, the only oblast capital they’ve taken since February, and their only bridgehead over the Dnieper.
The entire right bank is clear and Russia has relocated the front further south. In a possible sign of what’s to come, they have even been digging trenches in Crimea!
While in the slow season of the war, 2 things are worthy of note.
1) Russia is bombarding Ukraine with fewer drones and missiles, while Ukraine’s defenses are getting more robust.
Russia’s electrical grid campaign is still a damaging one and very concerning for Ukraine, but there’s potentially a light at the end of the tunnel in sight.
2) Ukraine has been able to strike deep within Russian sovereign territory.
So much for bikki’s assertion that Ukraine can’t strike an annexed Donbas or Kherson without Russian nuclear retaliation. Here we have Ukraine going PAST MOSCOW to military bases in sovereign Russia. Piddling as far as damage, true, but very significant, including the first-ever wartime damage to a nuclear bomber.
