OSINT is a lot more scarce in this stage of the war. As I mentioned a couple of days ago, Russia is really pushing on Severodonetsk, and they are making slow but steady progress.
It wouldnāt surprise me if they encircle the city in 2 days or 2 weeks.
Capturing Severodonetsk is another issue altogether. It could be a mini Mariupol or Ukraine could withdraw and fight another day as per their doctrine thus far.
Either way, there is some speculation that this is Russiaās last offensive push. That might be somewhere between optimistic analysis and wishful thinking. Certainly after this latest front solidifies itself, both sides could dig in for the long haul. Most projections are that Ukraine wonāt start a coordinated offensive until mid July, though I would guess sometime in June.
Some pretty credible intelligence out of Ukraine today. I always appreciate when a side brings grim news about their own team. That doesnāt mean itās not disinformation, of course, but it does deserve a second look.
No information is perfect. No interpretation of that imperfect information is perfect. But we can rationalize, logically. We can put pieces together. We can make sense of the information that we receive. We can triangulate info.
These are tanks that were built in the early 60s, which are themselves only a slight revision of tanks from the 50s. These are the famed Russian armor reserves, folksā¦
The bad guys are the Nazis. Theyāre the ones setting up props for the dummies at the NY Times. Putin is letting civilians evacuate before sending in the Chechens. Azov is a perfect example of this. The Nazis will stand trial in Moscow for their crimes. No way should Americans stand with the Ukrainian Army which is filled with Nazis and fighters from other equally pernicious, right wing groups.
I can use the same argument about literally any tweet you post.
Thereās a good amount of open source intel out there. If something untrue is stated as fact, it would be very easy for someone who knows better to set the record straight.
Do I know everything thatās going on with the war? Of course not. But instead of attaching to a narrative, Iām attempting to build an informative estimate out of the middle ground. Some of the sources Iāve listed in this thread have been Russian.
The Russian push at Popasna may be stalling out. Despite some early gains toward encirclement, Ukrainian defense has been fierce and Russia, by its own admission, has needed to pull back. So the encirclement is not complete.
That said, Russia is already moving into Severodonetsk, so they will probably fight there regardless of whether an encirclement plays out.
Also to add, āstalling outā may really just be resting/regrouping for a later push. Itās hard to know and really we need to wait a few days at least to get an idea of whatās transpiring on the ground.
There is a Ukrainian counterattack in the Kherson oblast near Mykolaiv that is seeing surprising success. While they have pushed the Russians back, most of this ground is only tactical at this stage. Threatening the town of Kherson is a whole other can of worms.
I would be surprised if this is the start of a legitimate Ukrainian counterattack, but I do believe the july, no August, no maybe October talk is purposely there to muddy the waters. I believe ukraineās counterattack will come in June sometime, but thatās a complete guess.
Well, to be fair, both you and I have a narrative as to the cause and purpose of this war. I am taking the West/Ukraine side that they should be free to live in their sovereign territory, and you are taking the Russian side that Ukraine doesnāt deserve to be a country and who cares if Russia invades.
But as far as how the war is playing out, no, I am not siding with eitherās propaganda arms. I am relying on OSINT, which is admittedly rife with propaganda, but again, taking a middle ground approach where I assume both sides do a healthy dose of lying.
Nothingās gospel. We wonāt get a good picture of the battlefield until a few years from now, and even then it will be biased to a side.
What Iām doing is my best to parse what is happening as well as we could know, and Iām doing this for the simple fact that Iām interested in this conflict and believe itās important for the next generation of European security.
But just realize that Iām not taking the side of āRussia army and command are idiots, hur hur. Ukraineās unstoppable.ā For example, I believe Ukraineās losses in this war far far exceed what is publicly reported or estimated by the mainstream. Both Russia and Ukraine are going through the meatgrinder. Itās a very old fashioned war in that sense. When all is said and done, years from now, we will talk about how many people Ukraine lost with reverence.
The highlights (but itās worth reading the whole thing):
The free world and many other nations, led by the United States, rallied to Ukraineās side with unprecedented military, humanitarian and financial support.
Americaās goal is straightforward: We want to see a democratic, independent, sovereign and prosperous Ukraine with the means to deter and defend itself against further aggression.
Iāve decided that we will provide the Ukrainians with more advanced rocket systems and munitions that will enable them to more precisely strike key targets on the battlefield in Ukraine.
We do not seek a war between NATO and Russia. As much as I disagree with Mr. Putin, and find his actions an outrage, the United States will not try to bring about his ouster in Moscow. So long as the United States or our allies are not attacked, we will not be directly engaged in this conflict, either by sending American troops to fight in Ukraine or by attacking Russian forces. We are not encouraging or enabling Ukraine to strike beyond its borders. We do not want to prolong the war just to inflict pain on Russia.
Standing by Ukraine in its hour of need is not just the right thing to do. It is in our vital national interests to ensure a peaceful and stable Europe and to make it clear that might does not make right.
Let me be clear: Any use of nuclear weapons in this conflict on any scale would be completely unacceptable to us as well as the rest of the world and would entail severe consequences.
Americans will stay the course with the Ukrainian people because we understand that freedom is not free. Thatās what we have always done whenever the enemies of freedom seek to bully and oppress innocent people, and it is what we are doing now. Vladimir Putin did not expect this degree of unity or the strength of our response. He was mistaken. If he expects that we will waver or fracture in the months to come, he is equally mistaken.