Russia may at some point throw so many bodies at this thing they could “win.” But they’re getting their asses handed to them.
Sorry @GardenStateCane and @bikki228.
It’s absolutely possible Russia will try to end the conflict after capturing Mariupol and completing Donbas. It will be difficult for Ukraine to stop that much.
Whether the war actually ends there is another matter. There might be another treaty to keep fighting local and stop all the missiles/blockades, but who knows.
Unfortunately I predict that Russia will take some of Ukraine. Things may settle down for a few years. They they’ll try to take more of it, to the delight of Bikki (for whatever reason).
What will be very interesting (and concerning) is if Russia gets to the point where they use tactical nukes. I don’t find this likely at this point….but the chances aren’t zero.
So after pulling out of their campaign for the north, Russia is pushing heavy on the eastern front.
Unfortunately, this is where I think Russia has a clear advantage. Supply lines are easier, the fighting is more straightforward, less insurgency, and overall, the plan is not nearly as ambitious as Russia’s original goals.
Mariupol is a day or two away from falling. Russia may take that win, as well as whatever they can grab in Donbas, and turn tail and go home.
Now, the war won’t be over. Ukraine would still fight for their land. But what would be so different from the last 8 years?
It was stupid of Putin to attack Kyiv. A clear tactical error that turned the world against him as well as embarrassed his army and lost a lot of soldiers. Europe doesn’t care so much about some disputed land in the east, or even Crimea. It was when Putin attempted to quash a sovereign nation that he stepped in it.
Putin’s new goal is much less ambitious - just finish grabbing parts of the east. If he stops sending missiles into the rest of Ukraine, it’s possible the world loses interest in giving Ukraine so much support.
And the east is really the key. The oil off the coast, the gas in Donbas and Crimea, the steel manufacturing in Mariupol, all that is very strategic for both countries.
Which isn’t all to say that everything depends on Russia.
Ukraine is gaining more armor, anti-air, and offensive capabilities. If their army can score some key victories, push back the Russians, and make a fight of this thing, then world excitement will continue.
Aside from news about Mariupol, I don’t expect a lot of significant news for the next 5 days as battle lines solidify. Let’s see what happens.
I am sure everyone heard the devastating news today…
Russian and Belarusian players have been banned from Wimbledon.
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Bikki will clutch his pearls. The horror!
The concern I think most people have is that if Russia takes Limited portions of Ukraine, they’ll quite for another few years and then try to go back in once ready.
Will also be interesting to see how Russia reacts to a Finland/Norway NATO membership.
A Russian commander admitted to their defeats in the early portion of the war:
“In the first days the tactics of Ukrainian units were designed to ensure that, having pulled ahead, individual groups of Russian troops fell into pre-prepared ambushes and suffered losses,” RIA cited him as saying. “But the Russian armed forces very quickly adapted to this and changed tactics.”
Another blow to everyone claiming the invasion was always going as planned. The Russian military, cited by a Russian news outlet, just admitted otherwise!
The commander also said something else concerning:
“Control over the south of Ukraine is another way to Transnistria, where there is also evidence that the Russian-speaking population is being oppressed.”
This is more evidence that Russia wants to own not only the coast of the Azov Sea, but the Black Sea including Odesa. They can connect a land bridge to Crimea, and even one breakaway region to another in Moldova. (Have I not always said Moldova was next?)
