Not a lot of updates since it has been muddy in Ukraine. With the ground freezing over, it has actually been Russia that has struck first. Their much-anticipated offensive redoubled efforts in the Battle for Bakhmut. While they are still far from achieving victory there, Russia pivoted to a neighboring town of Soledar. They appear to have mostly captured the city, which would be Russia’s first legit victory since taking Lysychansk in the Summer.
Ukraine has defense in depth in the area, so Russia’s gains are not likely to be huge or rout the enemy forces.
In the meantime, all of bikki’s winter predictions are failing.
NG is cheaper than it was before the war.
Europe’s NG stores are >90% full.
Russia is losing over 100 millions in business per day.
Ukraines energy grid is still going strong. Russia is low on munitions to keep striking it (though future weapons purchases are possible).
Basically, things have not been going well for Russia, so this is a much needed victory for them, even if it’s a small one. That said, Russia’s mobilization seems to have stopped their bleeding, and there are rumors of a future, larger mobilization. This should be scary for Ukrainians.
Meanwhile Ukraine has been reconstituting and is supposedly preparing an offensive of their own. Whether that happens in the winter or spring remains to be seen…
PREVIOUS POSTS IN SERIES
100k Russian troops on the border. Biden saying there’s a good chance Russia will invade. Canada sending a warship to the Black Sea.
It should be noted that Canada probably has a rotation of ships it regularly sends to the Black Sea, but this combined with Trudeau pledging support for Ukrainians.
There is a LOT of posturing going on.
Remember when conservatives criticized the veracity of American intelligence?
Remember when they said this was a manufactured crisis?
Remember when they said Putin wouldn’t invade?
Remember when they called Biden a warmonger?
This situation is fucked. Will Russia blitz over Kyiv with Belarusian troops or will Ukraine live to fight another day? I have no idea what I will read when i get up tomorrow morning.
I’m pretty bummed about the West and NATO’s inaction in this thing.
I thought American intelligence leading up to the invasion was great, and the assistance to start the defense had amazing results.
Russia tried this the easy way, with minimal damage to infrastructure except for military bases and air defenses. They messed up and threw bodies at a problem instead of money (life is cheaper). And Russia paid the price. It was embarrassing, Ukraine was holding them off, and Russia was losing a lo…
BTR-90 in Mariupol. Just some Ukrainians from bikki’s “not an army” taking out some Russian armor.
It’s been days now so we can reliably state this sequence of events:
1) Russia never managed to encircle Kyiv.
They were never able to cut supply lines to the capital. GSC and others may posit that taking Kyiv was never the goal. Possible, but it’s not plausible that Russia planned on allowing supplies to flow into the city unfettered. Besides the tactical blunder of dead paratroopers showing their hand, it’s idiocy to allow supplies into the city.
2) Ukraine started taking territory back.
A…
Holy shit. The Russian Ministry of Defense posted their 4 objectives for Phase Two.
1. Control over Donbas
2. Create terrestrial corridor to Crimea
3. Blockade Ukranian Black Sea ports
4. Control over southern Ukraine and create an exit to Transnistria
[Russia-Ukraine-Territory]
Phase One didn’t go Russia’s way. It was a huge military blunder as well as an epic intelligence failure. Russia attempted to execute a coup of the Kyiv government and was met with unexpected resistance. They over…
Luhansk was captured, slow and steady. It was an organized withdrawal on Ukraine’s part and there were no mass surrenders or captures of UAF forces or materiel. It is a Russian political victory either way and Putin has told his troops to rest and recover so it seems like a good time to start a new thread with some updates.
Russian Armed Forces
There is still fighting along multiple fronts and it is not clear if RAF are exhausted or not. Speculation is that the main Russian forces will rest fo…
The “Counteroffensive” started slow in July, with some months of softening and shaping fires. It’s safe to say things are now in full swing.
The Battle of Kherson is a heavily defended area that will be slow going, focusing on attrition of Russian forces where they are strongest yet also most vulnerable.
Today let’s talk about the Battle of Kharkiv. Far from an opportunistic recon group taking advantage of thin Russian lines, this is a well coordinated co-offensive with tactical reserves and a…
With less than 2% of the Kharkiv oblast still occupied by Russia, I thinks it’s time we pivot to Kherson.
However, the rainy season is upon Ukraine and with it a very likely Fall slowdown. So before the action hits, let’s look at a monthly chart of Ukrainian territory changes up to now.
[Territorial-Changes]
February, March
At the end of February, Russia initially invaded. That spilled into March and together represents the overwhelming majority of their gains.
April
But their attack quic…
I respect your hustle to cover the war that never mattered.
2 Likes
thre305ive:
Basically, things have not been going well for Russia, so this is a much needed victory for them, even if it’s a small one. That said, Russia’s mobilization seems to have stopped their bleeding, and there are rumors of a future, larger mobilization. This should be scary for Ukrainians.
Meanwhile Ukraine has been reconstituting and is supposedly preparing an offensive of their own. Whether that happens in the winter or spring remains to be seen…
THIS KID BELIEVES ANYTHING……
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2023/01/07/condoleezza-rice-robert-gates-ukraine-repel-russia/
JUNIOR STUGOTZ WHY ARE THEY SAYING UKRAINE IS LOSING AND NEEDS MORE MONEY?
HE IS LOST AS USUAL……
At least you call it a war now.
JUNIOR STUGOTZ YOU HAVE BEEN WRONG ABOUT EVERYTHING…
WHY DO YOU THINK THIS WILL BE DIFFERENT?
You’re right, we have been through this. Op is easier to type than war. SMO for special military operation is just as easy.
But please, let’s not pretend this isn’t a war.
There are ballistic and cruise missiles.
There are tanks and IFVs and APCs.
There are drones.
There are warships and sunken warships.
There’s fighter aircraft and there are strategic bombers.
There’s artillery.
There’s infantry in trenches.
This is the textbook definition of war. Really, you’d be hard-pressed to explain why it ISN’T a war.
JUNIOR STUGOTZ HAVE YOU SEEN THE SIZE OF THESE TWO MILITARIES?
YOU UNDERSTAND RUSSIA IS COMING FROM THEIR OWN COUNTRY SO SUPPLIES ARE NOT A PROBLEM?
WHAT KIND OF WEAPONS ARE WE SENDING TO PEOPLE THAT HAVE ZERO HOURS IN THE EQUIPMENT?
WE HAVE NOT SENT ONE SOLDIER……
ONLY MONEY AND SUPPOSEDLY WEAPONS……
IF WE SENT BILLIONS THAT MEANS IT IS IN THE UNITED STATES INTEREST FOR THE WINNER WE WANT TO WIN…
WHY ARE WE NOT SENDING SOLDIERS?
