And - I may be mistaken here - Ukraine had Crimea with the fall of the Soviet Union, correct?
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No, but that statement alone disproves bikki’s assertion.
Ukraine gained independence in 1917, but joined with Russia in 1921. Their state were the last owners of Crimea when the USSR fell, and the agreements made when they went independent again allowed them to keep it. It was fully theirs until Russia illegally annexed in 2014.
Thank you 305. So I was right that Crimea legally belonged to Ukraine before Russia illegally took it in 2014.
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I have in Crimea many times in the Sixties and Seventies, and believe me, Russian is the language of the people there. This is the language you hear in the street. Yes, some of the people speak Ukrainian and there are quite a few Turks living there. All school instruction is in Russian, and Crimea is thought by every native Russian to be part of Russia not part of a separate Ukraine I believe the majority of Crimeans are Russian. Like France and Italy, Russia has its Riviera, and in Russia it happens to be along the coast of Crimea to the east of Sevastopol over to the Strait of Kursk, the city of Yalta being the chief resort. The aristocracy and wealthy Soviets all had their enclaves along this coast, and it is most definitely Russian atmospherically. Russia conveniently controls the electrical supply to Crimea which comes in huge cables from the Western Oblast of Rostov. Russia can turn its lights off whenever it chooses.
The entire Eastern part of Ukraine is filled with Russians who have allegiances with Russia not Ukraine. The City of Donetsk I think the largest city in Eastern Ukraine must be half Russian. Again, I heard more Russian there than Ukrainian though my impression were gained through my wife’s observations since she spoke Russian, Belorussian, Ukrainian, and Bulgarian and eight other languages. One smart woman, she spoke German, Russian, Spanish French and English with almost native fluency. She earned her credential as a UN Translator: Russian to English, worked for Naval Intelligence, who paid for her education at Georgetown where she was conferred a Ph.D. in applied and theoretical linguistics. Were it not for this woman, I might today be Poor Bikki. She was a genius and a gorgeous woman who looked like Eva Gabor.
So by Bikki’s logic Austria should be annexed by Germany.
While we’re at it:
Russia should annex all the countries it lost after the fall of the Soviet Union.
Palestine should annex Israel.
China (or Japan) should annex Taiwan.
Mexico should annex the land the US took.
And the native Americans should annex all the land we took.
If you study the maps of Europe throughout history, you’ll find a lot of changing borders and oddities. So why the surprise of Russia taking over Crimea inasmuch as the population of Crimea is largely Russian. If you look at a map of Morocco, you’ll find two cities which belong to Spain not to Morocco. If you look at a map of France, you’ll find one city, an island within France that belongs to Spain. It is called Llivia. West Bank is another example. Until it was conquered by Israel, it was part of Jordan. BTW, under International Law, land seized by conquest (arguably) belongs to the conqueror. Jerusalem should as the epicenter Judaism always be part of Israel. Its majority population has been Jewish for more than two thousand years.
For certain, Russia should be in charge in Crimea. It is culturally Russian. It was seized without a civil war, so I think there is justification for its seizure. The problem is Eastern Ukraine. Putin wants Ukraine to be part of Russia. Why because of its resources and agricultural might. Presently, I don’t think the west has the stomach to prevent Putin’s territorial intentions. I’ve been in both Kiev and Kharkov, the chief cities of Ukraine where Putin’s ambition will meet with stiff political resistance. You’ll recall Ukraine agreed not to develop nuclear weapons in exchange for assurances of protection against Russia. In my view, Russia takes Ukraine,actually with very little resistance from Ukrainians and Biden does nothing but puts sanctions on Europe which won’t work because Europe is at the mercy of Russia for its energy.
Awesome post by someone on reddit. Very informative but it’s an individual opinion so take with a grain of salt:
How likely is it that A. Russia actually invade Ukraine?
If Russia isn’t planning to invade, their efforts have backfired spectacularly.
Ukraine has been begging the US and UK for the latest gen anti tank missiles, the famous Javelin and less famous, but equally devastating NLAW missile systems for years now. These are infantry weapons that can reliably defeat any tank Russia has. Ukraine has been facing off against Russian tanks in the Donbas conflict and suffering terribly, and these weapons would go a long way toward evening the odds there.
The US and UK have until now largely refused to sell Ukraine these weapons (and Ukraine has offered to pay way over the market price), out of fear it will escalate the Donbas conflict. Ukraine says it needs these weapons to defend itself if Russia tries to invade Ukraine proper, but the US/UK have taken the view that if Russia ever did that, it will take Russia months to move so much troops and equipment and will be caught by spy satellites, leaving plenty of time to rush those Javelins/NLAWs to Ukraine.
I cannot overstate how badly Ukraine wants these weapons. They begged and begged president Trump for Javelins, the entire debacle over the infamous Trump “Ukraine call”/“quid pro quo” thing, and indeed the allegations around Clinton/Biden interfering in Ukraine (I don’t really want to get into either of those debates right now though please) were all about those missiles and what Ukraine would be prepared to do to receive them. Getting those missiles is Ukraine’s number one foreign policy goal.
Until now, they have only received (I believe) 30 launchers and 180 Javelin missiles from the US, and nothing from the UK, with strict terms on when and where those Javelins can be used. Basically enough to tell Ukraine to fuck off and stop asking us for them all the time.
Well now Russia has spent the last few months doing exactly what the US/UK said would be make or break time for sending missiles to Ukraine. And the UK (and I suspect the US with greater secrecy) have indeed followed through on their tacit promise to get Ukraine those missiles if that situation were ever to arise.
If Russia weren’t planning to actually invade, this could be the biggest fuckup by Russia since… idk… Operation Barbarossa? The UK in the last few days has transported 1,500+ NLAWs and counting to Ukraine. Between bouts of intense sweating and nausea at the prospect of all out war with Russia, Ukrainian leaders must at least be able to enjoy the occasional wry smile at that.
Any Russian invasion will now take devastating casualties to their vehicles, as a lone Ukrainian infantryman crawling through a bombed out building, thicket of trees, ditch, etc only has to get within 600m of a Russian tank to blow it to smithereens. Worse still, even if Russia backs down and doesn’t invade, expect Ukraine to use NLAWs in Donbas from now on. And while many have pointed out that these missiles won’t help Ukraine against Russian air supremacy much, they’re missing the point: air power is mostly useful against large targets, not widely dispersed soldiers armed with missile launchers.
That’s why these missiles are so important. Ukraine has plenty of tanks. Ukraine has plenty of artillery pieces. Expect them to be destroyed by Russian aircraft in the opening hours of the invasion. But there are 200,000 Ukrainian infantry (plus a million or so reservists) who until recently couldn’t really do much but run away against tanks so weren’t really a problem for Russia. Now they can. Russia would still win an invasion, but is likely to lose 100s of tanks, and leave many infantry units without effective tank support, enabling Ukrainian infantry to stand their ground better, driving up the human and equipment cost to Russia of such an invasion dramatically.
I’m convinced Russia didn’t actually expect the UK/US to make good with the missiles to Ukraine. Russia probably expected indecision, political fluff, and fear of provoking Russia to paralyse them into inaction. If so, they badly miscalculated.
But it’s difficult to see what Russia expected to achieve if it had no intention of invading. The economic cost of relocating ~150,000 soldiers, along with massive numbers of tanks, aircraft etc from all across Russia (Russia has pulled units from all over Russia to spread the shortfall in other regions equally), building field hospitals, supply dumps, staging grounds, etc is enormous. The Russian stock market has also taken a big hit. It’s a huge cost to pay for a joke/empty threat, even without it handing Ukraine a tremendous victory without a shot being fired.
This is why I think this is likely going to be a real invasion. Or at least, it was before the UK floored everyone with their response and put the screws on Russia. You don’t throw away so much, and gift your rival so much, if it isn’t real. Ukraine not only has the anti tank missiles they desperately wanted, but a whole bunch of other aid trickling in rapidly, and most importantly, the military aid taps have probably been turned on permanently. They can probably buy almost whatever they want from the US/UK from now on. SAMs, aircraft, warships, etc, because why not? The genie’s out of the bottle now, everyone now knows Russia could do the unthinkable.
Russia’s entire foreign policy strategy is based on brinkmanship. That you never know what they’re going to do next, how crazy they really are. If Russia backs down now, this policy is in ruins. Everyone will know that Russia will blink first if you just stand firm enough. I don’t think the Russian government can take that.
B. That then kickstarts WW3
Nah. Nobody wants that. Russia would get its teeth kicked in by NATO and they know it. NATO doesn’t want the casualties, the economic chaos, etc, or to find out what a cornered, defeated Russia might do next with the thousands of nuclear weapons it possesses. Nobody is bound by any alliance agreement to defend Ukraine, so they’ll all just nope out of it. Even the UK and US.
The entire reason the UK is sending those missiles to Ukraine (aside from perhaps a smattering of genuine sympathy and affection for Ukraine) is so the UK doesn’t have to fight a war. Best way to stay out of the conflict is give Ukrainians the weapons they need to fight it themselves. The UK and US will also be giving Ukraine all their military intelligence, advice, training and a mountain of other material support.
If Russia is smart, they’ll back down. On paper Russia’s armed forces are much stronger, but their troops are pure trash. Low morale, bitter, poorly equipped conscripts who’ll desert in droves at the prospect of an offensive war against a determined enemy that was never a threat to their country and that many consider their brethren. Russia risks humiliation if Ukraine can push their army over a tipping point. War is unpredictable, but the loyalty and professionalism of the average Russian soldier is more unpredictable than the determination of proud, free people defending their homeland.
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I do believe you, but it’s irrelevant. English is the language in the US yet we aren’t part of England.
Is this similar to how Ukraine controls the fresh water supply to Crimea and can (and has) turned it off as it chose?
Imagine the board fucking idiot attempting to judge intelligence.
Not a part of England because we fought a revolutionary war.
Interesting article on strategy. Putin is smart, not an idiot like Biden. In fact, he’s the most successful politician of the last two decades. He’ll negotiate some kind of deal and will not make the mistake of getting into a high casualty conflict.
Very interesting take 305. Thanks for posting.
Unfortunately, it appears the two conservatives confirm the fears we have…conservative support Russia in its attempt to bring back Soviet era boundaries and power structure. It appears the Russian network within the GOP, Butina to NRA and through GOP operatives like Paul Erickson and Trump supporter Patrick Byrne (who’s still paying her directly), worked quite well. It’s unfortunate their loyalties do not lie with their own country, the United States.
I don’t support Russia you numbskull.
What I do supper is state sovereignty- both for us and for other nations.
It’s not really our business what happens abroad if it doesn’t directly affect American lives. And I don’t see Crimea being an issue that elevates us to consider military action.
You want to be a hawk? Good for you. I’m tired of that shit.
Ukraine had their own revolutionary war too…
Then you agree with Obama and Biden on that point.
However, this is no longer about Crimea. This is about the rest of Ukraine. If you think Putin doesn’t want Kyiv, you haven’t been paying attention.
And if GSC doesn’t think Putin wants all of the nations that now exist since the Soviet Union broke up, he hasn’t been paying attention.
Appeasement.
[quote=“GardenStateCane, post:37, topic:3231”]
What I do supper is state sovereignty- both for us and for other nations.
Yet, you don’t support Ukraine’s right to self sovereignty. What a joke, dude. Do you even think about this shit before you write it?
I remember reading about lots and lots of the same responses concerning Germany in 1939. How’d that work out?
Why would you derive this from my statement. I do supper Ukrainian sovereignty.
Here’s the thing with sovereignty- you have to be able to keep it.
Why should 1 American die for a Ukrainian?
Ah, so you support sovereignty but only for the strongest nations. Got it. So, you think Germany had the right to take over Poland and France because they weren’t strong enough to stop them. Gotcha.
Totally logical point of view…for a psychopath
I believe Ford, Heinz Spanknobel and Lindbergh said the same thing during WW2. Then again, Ford was an avid Nazi fan and vicious anti-semite, Heinz led the American Bund, and Lindbergh was a Nazi sympathizer.
Hmmm…wouldn’t that make you something like a sympathizer for our enemies, too? Oh yeah…we’ve been saying that for a year